Tensions rising between US and Iran substantially.
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Comments | 3 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 10 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+12%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
80%
(-12%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 1, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-5%)
Moldova
3%
(0%)
Armenia
8%
(-2%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 17, 2025 to Sep 17, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Mar 17, 2025 to Sep 17, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Maintaining at 7%, despite lack of activity during the early months of the current administration. Downward pressures include that no signs of escalation have occurred. Upward pressures include that this is a time of turmoil in US foreign policy, which might lead to a higher prob. of tail events, including escalation between US and China which could lead to proxy pressures for NK to conduct a test.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NK might have suspended its nuclear testing program due to effective pressures from China and/or the US.
Alternatively, NK might be gearing up for a test since they're "due" for one after 7 years of inactivity, avoiding the ~wrong~ moment to do one. This time of higher chaos in the world might be an opportune moment to demonstrate capabilities, in their eyes.
Files
Any thoughts about a test (if "needed") in Russia or Indian Ocean (strategic obsfucation)? Thanks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
33%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
18%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
13%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
30%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
I think a ceasefire is more likely than the community (and more likely to happen earlier). RFI forecasters seem to be considerably skeptical on the prospects of a ceasefire, despite a consensus of reporting indicating mutual desires for a ceasefire from all stakeholders (with the Russians being the most reluctant).
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be dramatically over-estimating the odds of Putin agreeing to a ceasefire, even in the face of American pressure (both positive and negative).
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Decaying my forecast downward
Why might you be wrong?
Decaying my forecast downward