| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 10 | 14 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Comments | 6 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Questions Forecasted | 10 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Definitions | |||||
Odds have dramatically declined of a ceasefire due to
-perceptions that the current administration is beginning to accept Russia sandbagging negotiations
-time decay as negotiations have not been fruitful
-sharp movement in real money prediction markets indicating inside knowledge
Initial progress such as energy / naval ceasefires might indicate a high willingness to have a lasting ceasefire from both sides, and the reluctance to publicly announce willingness for a ceasefire might be negotiating smoke
It's plausible that I'm over-estimating the likelihood of a black swan crash in both Apple and Microsoft stock due to tariffs.
Decaying my forecast downward
Decaying my forecast downward
Tensions rising between US and Iran substantially.
Could be posturing for a nuclear deal (likely is)
Adjusting downward from recent activity
Adjusting downward from recent activity
Why do you think you're right?
There are only a couple months left. All of these are quite low but I remain slightly above the community forecast.
Venezuela has been threatening an invasion of Guyana for quite some time, and perhaps if there is an escalation between the US and Iran, Venezuela might view it as good a time as any to launch their invasion. Generally, all four scenarios are quite unlikely.
Why might you be wrong?
War could be imminent and there just hasn't been media coverage, perhaps.