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130th
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:
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3.893493

Relative Brier Score

296

Forecasts

16

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 28 34 291 238 1013
Comments 1 1 38 36 100
Questions Forecasted 28 33 63 55 195
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 28 24 56
 Definitions
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
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New Prediction
aggaray
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Kuwait
1% (0%)
Oman
1% (0%)
Qatar
2% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
1% (0%)
Tunisia
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New Prediction
aggaray
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (0%)
Yes
80% (0%)
No
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New Prediction
aggaray
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 24%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
20% (-60%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
80% (+60%)
More than or equal to 28%
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New Prediction
aggaray
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
15% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Estonia
3% (0%)
Latvia
3% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (-1%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

Just in sync with other forecasts in similar topics, i consider quite low this probability

Files
New Prediction
It is unpredictable but in general, very unlikely...for this reason, i am updating my forecast
Files
Files
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