152nd
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:
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1.015787

Relative Brier Score

271

Forecasts

27

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 28 308 271 1046
Comments 0 3 46 44 475
Questions Forecasted 3 28 66 59 199
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 30 27 59
 Definitions
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 24%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
10% (-10%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
90% (+10%)
More than or equal to 28%

Updating my forecast considering new trends

Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
15% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Estonia
3% (0%)
Latvia
3% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
aggaray
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
aggaray
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Nov 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
aggaray
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025
25%
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025

Very likely to happen in a short time...these kind of developments are not tipically announce during development-phase and there are many research initiatives pushing for more so i do believe it is very likely

Files
New Prediction

Updating my forecast and reducing the probability

Files
Files
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