sepeskoe

As I've said somewhere here previously, NVIDIA is currently 3rd behind MicroSoft and Apple.  Nvidia is growing more rapidly currently, but there are competitors coming to market with chips equally capable for AI applications.  Apple just added "intelligence" to their iPhone and iPad products, and the market for those is just starting to open up. 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/04/apple-or-nvidia-which-will-get-to-4-trillion-first/#:~:text=Nvidia%20(NVDA%200.22%25)%20recently,at%20just%20over%20%243.4%20trillion.

So, I think direct competition from other chip makers plus a slowdown in AI investment will limit Nvidia's growth.  How soon?  I'm betting that Nvidia won't grow fast enough to catch Apple by May 2025.

Also, there may be some issues associated with Nvidia's chips being manufactured in Taiwan.  As we noted in another question, China did not "invade" Taiwan during the forecasting window of that question; however, there is still a possibility that China may take action in the near future.  In that case, either the chips won't become available, or the US might be leery of exposing chip designs to Chinese competitors (or military).  Hence, another reason that Nvidia's growth might be drastically reduced in the future.

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/03/08/what-you-need-to-know-about-nvidia-and-the-ai-chip-arms-race/

It's damned close to war right now.  My hesitancy is that Israel has already greatly damaged Hezbollah's capabilities with the precision targeted pager/radio explosions and the fighter bombing raids.  There may be no need to declare war if Hezbollah is so weakened already.  For now, I'm waiting to see how Hezbollah responds to these Israeli actions.

Iran's retribution for Israel's assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah was more controlled than I expected, so there wasn't a need for the US to put any more US forces in the area than are already in the Mediterranean.  Appears that Iran remains leery of provoking the US into an engagement.

I'm not at "0" like many other forecasters.  I'm still a bit concerned that an Israeli war with Hezbollah could draw in US forces and Iran may feel the need to engage as well.  Maybe Iran will fire warning shots to show their missile capabilities, rather than directly engaging, in an attempt to keep US forces from joining Israel's battle.  (I don't think missile warning shots would qualify as an "airstrike" for this question, but I don't know how the US would respond to such a tactic.  Perhaps the US would decide to take out the missile launchers, which could prompt an Iranian direct response.)

Disclosure.  I own Nvidia stock.  That pretty much guarantees that Nvidia won't be the largest company.  Seriously, Nvidia vs the field?  Apple, Google, MicroSoft and many others offer a great deal more than Nvidia does, and chip competitors to Nvidia are emerging now.  Too much competition on both fronts.  (I own Apple stock, too.  So that won't be the largest next May, either.)

The explosions of Hezbollah devices and the bombing of a Beirut suburb by Israel in response to Hezbollah firing 160+ missiles into northern Israel makes it pretty much impossible for Saudi Arabia to proceed with normalization discussions while the Middle East is heating up.

The Ayatollah says Iran should be a nuclear power, so Iran will keep enriching.  If Iran was indeed given nuclear weapon secret know-how by Russia in exchange for those 75-mile Fath 360 short-range ballistic missiles, then clearly they have no intent to reduce their stockpile.

The Grand Ayatollah indicated to the new Iranian president that it's proper for Iran to continue to build its stockpile.  Despite Biden administration attempts to forge new nuclear agreements with Iran it appears to be falling on deaf ears.

There's been chatter -- Chinese vessels encroaching in Taiwanese territory and vice versa -- but no real threats.  Nothing but diplomatic words and a little military brandishing of swords (intercepting vessels, overflights, etc).  I'm moving the last 1% in "yes" to 100% "no"