RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)

Closed Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 80 · 165

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)

Closed Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 79 · 168

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023)

Closed Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 89 · 188

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023)

Closed Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 91 · 215

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023)

Closed Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 102 · 215

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023)

Closed Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 100 · 209

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)

Closed Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 101 · 221

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 176 · 988

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023)

Closed May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC · 84 · 117

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 107 · 634