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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
·
34
·
50
25%
Chance
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
·
26
·
40
26%
Chance
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
49
·
83
24%
Chance
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
110
·
332
0%
Chance
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Closing
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
118
·
539
33%
Chance
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Closing
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
252
·
1032
5%
Chance
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