RAND Forecasting Initiative

Crowd Forecast

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 35 · 52

25%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 29 · 43

27%

Chance

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 83

24%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 110 · 333

0%

Chance

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Closing May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 118 · 540

34%

Chance

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Closing Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 253 · 1033

5%

Chance