RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 64 · 101

37%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 54 · 88

45%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 130

0%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 130

0%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 130

0%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 130

0%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 173 · 1104

1%

Chance

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Closed Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 413

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 69 · 272

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Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

37%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

45%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

1%

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Status

Season

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Topics

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37%

45%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%