RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 106 · 589

14%

Chance

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 99 · 691

22%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 82 · 604

1%

Chance

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 164 · 1497

8%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 74 · 623

7%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 115 · 888

1%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 117 · 901

1%

Chance

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 63 · 611

0%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 89 · 938

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 108 · 910

0%

Chance

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Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

14%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

22%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

8%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

7%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

0%

Status

Season

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Topics

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14%

22%

1%

8%

7%

1%

1%

0%

0%