RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Your Score

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)

Closed Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 83 · 126

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)

Closed Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 87 · 135

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)

Closed Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 93 · 142

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)

Closed Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 64 · 113

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Closed Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC · 174 · 736

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)

Closed Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC · 103 · 184

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)

Closed Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC · 103 · 162

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)

Closed Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC · 75 · 150

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)

Closed Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC · 101 · 182

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

Closed Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC · 101 · 182