RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 35 · 69

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 59 · 108

30%

Chance

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Closing Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 46 · 104

51%

Chance

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 39 · 75

5%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 51 · 105

13%

Chance

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 35 · 76

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 20 · 53

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 63 · 154

8%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 29 · 70

6%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 28 · 87

Status

Season

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How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

30%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

51%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

5%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

13%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

8%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

6%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

30%

51%

5%

13%

8%

6%