RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Crowd Forecast

Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the "Big 5" tech companies against the company's involvement with DoD in the next year?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 0 · 0

50%

Chance

How will the ratio of U.S.-authored to China-authored highly cited AI papers change over the next three years?

Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 0 · 0

How will the percentage of U.S. residents who don't trust the U.S. military change over the next three years?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 13 · 13

Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)?

Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 0 · 0

50%

Chance

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 68 · 120

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 0 · 0