RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 161 · 1445

11%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 74 · 603

6%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 114 · 858

1%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 117 · 863

4%

Chance

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 63 · 592

0%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 89 · 916

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 108 · 890

0%

Chance

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 103 · 814

1%

Chance

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Closing Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 83 · 826

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 96 · 917

1%

Chance

Status

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Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

11%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

6%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

4%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

1%

Status

Season

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11%

6%

1%

4%

0%

0%

1%

1%