RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 67 · 103

39%

Chance

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM · 77 · 123

6%

Chance

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 78 · 302

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 90 · 277

6%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 102 · 336

10%

Chance

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 60 · 242

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 41 · 185

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 115 · 409

6%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 54 · 204

4%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 51 · 277

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Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?

39%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

6%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

6%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

10%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

6%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

4%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Status

Season

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39%

6%

6%

10%

6%

4%