RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 50

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 37 · 59

29%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 30 · 48

31%

Chance

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 50 · 87

23%

Chance

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Closing Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 36 · 65

38%

Chance

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 33 · 58

5%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 41 · 80

12%

Chance

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 29 · 60

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 18 · 42

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 53 · 121

12%

Chance

Status

Season

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How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

29%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

31%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

23%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

38%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

5%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

12%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

12%

Status

Season

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Topics

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29%

31%

23%

38%

5%

12%

12%