RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 77 · 689

10%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 117 · 962

1%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 120 · 975

1%

Chance

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 65 · 674

0%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 93 · 1014

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 110 · 978

0%

Chance

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 107 · 896

1%

Chance

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Closing Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 88 · 918

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 98 · 1000

0%

Chance

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 72 · 736

0%

Chance

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In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

10%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

0%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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10%

1%

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0%

0%

1%

0%

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