RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the "Big 5" tech companies against the company's involvement with DoD in the next year?

50%

How will the ratio of U.S.-authored to China-authored highly cited AI papers change over the next three years?

How will the percentage of U.S. residents who don't trust the U.S. military change over the next three years?

Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)?

50%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

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