RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Crowd Forecast

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on or before 31 March 2023?

Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 9 · 10

96%

Chance

Will more U.S. patent applications mentioning both “quantum computing” and “artificial intelligence” be filed in 2023 than in 2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 44 · 61

77%

Chance

By 31 March 2023, will the U.S. Department of Agriculture ban cultured meat companies from labeling their products as “meat” in the U.S.?

Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 20 · 21

8%

Chance

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome drop below $100 before 1 September 2023?

Closed Sep 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 101 · 465

4%

Chance

By 31 December 2022, how much money will the U.S. appropriate to the Department of Educations’ STEAM and Computer Science Grants for FY23?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 26 · 45

By 31 December 2022, how much money will the U.S. appropriate to the Biological Systems Science Division for FY23?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 32 · 60

What percentage of the U.S.’s renewable energy consumption will come from biofuels in 2023?

Closed Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 105 · 808

How many AI related patents will be published in China in 2022?

Closed Dec 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 44 · 87

How many AI related patents will be published in the U.S. in 2022?

Closed Dec 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 37 · 75

In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most AI research publications ranked in the top 10%?

Closed Dec 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 38 · 99

88%

Chance