RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 44 · 99

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 64 · 134

21%

Chance

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 46 · 96

5%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 59 · 138

11%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 68 · 185

6%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 32 · 86

6%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 56 · 233

54%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 115 · 409

1%

Chance

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 52 · 304

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 53 · 347

17%

Chance

Status

Season

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How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

21%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

5%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

11%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

6%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

6%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

54%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

1%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

17%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

21%

5%

11%

6%

6%

54%

1%

17%