Toggle navigation
FAQ
See Forecasts
Blog
Join Now
Sign In
Topics
Questions
The Question Lab
Filters
Status
Active
Coming Soon
Completed
Active
Pending Resolution
Resolved
Suspended
Season
2024 Season
All
2024 Season
2023 Season
2022 Season
2021 Season
2020 Season
Sort By
Start Date
End Date
Number of Forecasts
Number of Forecasters
Alphabetically
Filter By
Featured Questions
Topics
Select All
Artificial Intelligence (7)
only
China Politics, Relati... (1)
only
International Diplomac... (38)
only
Iran: Threats & Influence (15)
only
Microelectronic Techno... (1)
only
Russia-Ukraine War (8)
only
Science & Technology (16)
only
Show more
Tags
Select All
No Tags
only
Iran Nuclear Program (10)
only
Iran-VNSAs (5)
only
Open RAN (4)
only
Africa (3)
only
Economic Debt (3)
only
Russian Disinformation (3)
only
China Lithography (2)
only
Cybersecurity (2)
only
East Asia Security (2)
only
Show less
Question
Crowd Forecast
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
49
·
83
24%
Chance
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
·
40
·
77
12%
Chance
Files
Remove
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Publish Anonymously
Cancel