RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 64 · 101

37%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 54 · 88

45%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 1, 2024 and Aug 1, 2024)

Closed Aug 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 47 · 105

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 1, 2024 and Jul 1, 2024)

Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 43 · 97

0%

Chance

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024)

Closed Jun 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC · 53 · 122

0%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024)

Closed Jun 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC · 41 · 95

0%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)

Closed Jun 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 58 · 143

0%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)

Closed Jun 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 61 · 136

0%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024)

Closed Jun 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 49 · 133

0%

Chance

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 1, 2024 and Jun 1, 2024)

Closed Jun 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 46 · 108

0%

Chance

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Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

37%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

45%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 1, 2024 and Aug 1, 2024)

0%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 1, 2024 and Jul 1, 2024)

0%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024)

0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024)

0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)

0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)

0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024)

0%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 1, 2024 and Jun 1, 2024)

0%

Status

Season

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37%

45%

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