RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Closed Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC · 55 · 200

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)

Closed Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC · 82 · 395

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Closed Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC · 82 · 395

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Closed Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 82 · 160

Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

Closed Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC · 38 · 87

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 130

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 96 · 637

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 93 · 524

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 93 · 524

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 96 · 637