RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 12 · 17

4%

Chance

What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 12 · 24

Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 73 · 135

7%

Chance

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility in the next 6 months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 60 · 77

13%

Chance

How many members will be part of the Gold Hydrogen Program on 29 February 2024?

Closed Feb 29, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 24 · 40

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on or before 31 March 2023?

Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 9 · 10

96%

Chance

Will more U.S. patent applications mentioning both “quantum computing” and “artificial intelligence” be filed in 2023 than in 2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 44 · 61

77%

Chance

By 31 March 2023, will the U.S. Department of Agriculture ban cultured meat companies from labeling their products as “meat” in the U.S.?

Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 20 · 21

8%

Chance

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome drop below $100 before 1 September 2023?

Closed Sep 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 101 · 465

4%

Chance

By 31 December 2022, how much money will the U.S. appropriate to the Department of Educations’ STEAM and Computer Science Grants for FY23?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 26 · 45

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Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

4%

What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?

Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?

7%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility in the next 6 months?

13%

How many members will be part of the Gold Hydrogen Program on 29 February 2024?

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on or before 31 March 2023?

96%

Will more U.S. patent applications mentioning both “quantum computing” and “artificial intelligence” be filed in 2023 than in 2022?

77%

By 31 March 2023, will the U.S. Department of Agriculture ban cultured meat companies from labeling their products as “meat” in the U.S.?

8%

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome drop below $100 before 1 September 2023?

4%

By 31 December 2022, how much money will the U.S. appropriate to the Department of Educations’ STEAM and Computer Science Grants for FY23?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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4%

7%

13%

96%

77%

8%

4%