Confirmed previous forecast
2.488672
Relative Brier Score
719
Forecasts
38
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 719 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 474 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 126 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 38 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing,
semiconductors,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Yes
65%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 26, 2024 08:44PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 26, 2024 to Dec 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
I dont see any events involving China in this timeframe especially considering their reliance on outside chips, and the news that the new Huawei phone had chips made in Taiwan (here) and not China as previously believed. Additionally Typhoon season near Taiwan starts in July (what I believe is the most common natural disaster for the area).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
The only newsworthy items about the Russia - Ukraine conflict currently are whether or not the US will continue to provide funding to Ukraine. Domestically Im not sure how its landing with the Russian people, but there doesnt seem to have been any news of backlash against the president.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 05:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2024 to Jul 31, 2024
Maybe because of other international issues, but this seems to have been less and less of an international topic as of late. Also, China appears to be trying to address their own economic issues currently and rely too strongly on the west to consider actions that would alienate them from many countries
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-25%)
Yes
65%
(+25%)
No
Both parties seem very stubborn in their stance, and especially considering the recent news of the Israeli of a hospital (here) which appears to be very inflammatory, I dont see a lot of headway being made anytime soon unless there are some changes or outside intervention
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 30, 2024 05:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2024 to Jul 31, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
