29th
Accuracy Rank

Akkete

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? 0.035163
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.043937
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.294406
    May 15, 2024 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 15, 2024 and May 15, 2024) 0.02142
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.000145
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.004389
    Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) -0.107684
    Apr 15, 2024 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 15, 2024 and Apr 15, 2024) 0.0378
    Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024) -0.071591
    Apr 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024) 0.0
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? 0.022145
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024) 0.0002
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? -0.004221
    Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024) 0.000675
    Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024) 0.000124
    Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024) -0.012823
    Mar 15, 2024 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 15, 2024 and Mar 15, 2024) 0.047979
    Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024) 0.042314
    Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? -0.000018
    Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024) 0.0
     
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