RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.055623
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?	0.000626
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	0.085826
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?	0.004427
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?	0.021435
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC	On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center?	-0.020543
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?	0.002567
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.000126
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.000156
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	0.054574
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?	0.061854
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022?	-0.048005
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC	Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?	0.0528
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM UTC	How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?	-0.214823
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	-0.049329
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	-0.016034
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC	What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?	-0.017831
Jul 01, 2022 01:33PM UTC	By 30 June 2022, will a date be announced for a Mobileye IPO?	0.092575
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	0.003983
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM UTC	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	0.014836

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