RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.019013
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.003478
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	-0.066328
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	-0.000722
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	-0.000428
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023)	0.000442
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)	0.0002
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	0.003607
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.176561
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)	0.000181
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.131607
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?	-0.073712
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	0.017098
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023)	0.000747
Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023)	0.000284
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?	-0.039854
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	-0.007021
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.004042
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	0.005135
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023)	0.000619

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