Confirmed previous forecast
0.00032
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-8%)
Yes
Little chance of mortality event
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
New attacks in last week mean shipping is now almost certain not to resume
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-94%)
Yes
97%
(+94%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Oil companies were cautious returning to golf of Aden when pirates were active
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Attacks end or Gaza war ends
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
Yes
3%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Comment deleted on Feb 24, 2024 06:47AM UTC
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If attacks stop or Gaza conflict ends then situation should settle. Entered prediction incorrectly too!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
Little chance of credible election opposition /fair election and strong hold of domestic discontent. Can’t see mechanism for removing him unless he dies. Low prob of death at 71
Files