Confirmed previous forecast
0.269819
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Future Bowl
New Prediction
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Most probably, yes, given that people are fueled by curiosity about what AI is capable of - they are checking it out and watching it rapidly develop. So apart from fresh music explorers there'll be a bunch of people just satisfying their curiosity.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be it gets a solid amount of streams, but doesn't reach 10 mln.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
The rapid advancements in AI technology have raised concerns about the misinformation and deepfakes. I don't think these concerns will be dismissed lightly. While AI technology has brought numerous benefits, it also poses significant risks when misused.
Files