False positives will be the biggest problem I think. Users could get quite upset if they see their own work being labeled as potentially AI generated.
-0.060688
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A platform might feel inclined to roll out such a labeling system more or less "for show" to boost their image. They could create a system that only targets a small amount of users/posts that are already marked suspicious by length, frequency of posting and other metadata, rather than trying to infer AI generation from the text content itself.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Measures have been taken to be more resilient than in 2011. Any restrictive measures taken by China will take some time to be reflected in the price. China might want to wait with any drastic foreign policy actions as the US election could make a big difference in what the response might be.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files
Why do you think you're right?
AI and James Webb Telescope have joined recently
Why might you be wrong?
Purely statistics. Even though it is highly likely more exoplanets will be discovered than last year, the fraction of habitable planets is pretty small. So it wouldn't take much to underperform compared to last year.
If you mean that the number of new exoplanets discovered rises each year, this is not the case; please see https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/120728 and the full detailed data here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/120891
And the JWT has contributed only a single one so far (in 2023), and it was not classified as "potentially habitable": https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/120702