He will not give up this easily.
1.251481
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
U.S. tech sector,
Future Bowl
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-8%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Stranger things have happened.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 300 million CHF
0%
More than or equal to 300 million CHF but less than 350 million CHF
0%
More than or equal to 350 million CHF
Why do you think you're right?
Inflation. Also their historic Q4 is not their best quarter.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Q3 was a very good quarter, then Q4 could very well be over 300M CHF
Files
New Prediction
A huge portion of the 2021-2022 investment climate was due to the crypto boom and overall bubble. Investors had a lot of excess cash and they poured in way too much money into startups that barely had proof of concept. Many of these startups will continue to flounder, especially those in the crypto space. The fraud on top of a recession will have a chilling effect on investments for the next several years.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Impossible Foods suffers from poor management and drama. Its founder has stepped down and they are in the middle of a patent lawsuit. In addition ,competitor Beyond Meat has experienced a slump in sales and experienced layoffs. Given the competitive environment, chance of economic recession, and stock market chaos, there will not be an IPO announcement date before the end of the year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Pressure from investors to announce something.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
China will wait until the protests escalate even further and international pressure mounts until announcing an end to the policy. I don't see this happening before January.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the protests escalate and economic impacts are immediate, then they may consider ending the policy or relaxing it.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The momentum is leading Iran towards a civil war or revolution. The Iranian people, majority of whom are under the age of 40 will not go down without a fight. The government has lost absolute control of the situation and their tactics will not calm down the protests. Thus, there only "response" is executions and violence.
Why might you be wrong?
Fatalities during the 1979 revolution were estimated to be between 500-something to 2000.