Training time is long and expensive. No intention to do so. Integration and multimodality will be more pressing.
0.043599
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
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Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
Disagree on Access but likely achieved in research.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
1%
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
99%
Not before 1Q 2024
Mostly this below + good arguments
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/17/big-oil-algae-biofuel-funding-cut-exxonmobil
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Little time left, incentives seems against.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
0
0%
1
92%
2
8%
More than or equal to 3
Following Crowd Forecast.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 5%
19%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
77%
More than or equal to 6%
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
quantum computing development is not yet in a phase to be effectively used for an attack of any sort.
Files
Close to crowd. Tech being developed not enough time.