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Accuracy Rank

DippySkippy

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Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 8%
No 95% Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 92%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 07, 2024 02:51PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 07, 2024 02:58PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 6% Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2026 Jan 7, 2025 7%
No 94% Oct 7, 2024 to Apr 7, 2026 Jan 7, 2025 93%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 Nov 18, 2024 1%
No 99% Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 Nov 18, 2024 99%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 Nov 18, 2024 4%
No 99% Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 Nov 18, 2024 96%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 Nov 18, 2024 0%
No 100% Oct 18, 2024 to Apr 18, 2025 Nov 18, 2024 100%
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