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DippySkippy

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Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 100%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 12%
No 95% Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 88%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 2%
No 97% 98%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:34PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 35% 21%
No 65% 79%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:35PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 01:45PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Argentina 5% 18%
Bolivia 30% 21%
Ecuador 10% 12%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 98% 97%
No 2% 3%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%
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