Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 04:50PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 04:50PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 4% | 16% | -12% | -1% |
| Bolivia | 28% | 22% | +6% | +1% |
| Ecuador | 9% | 12% | -3% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 04:51PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 04:51PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Dec 20, 2024 | 12% | -4% | -2% |
| No | 92% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Dec 20, 2024 | 88% | +4% | +2% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 4% | 19% | -15% | -1% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 63% | 72% | -9% | +0% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 30% | 8% | +22% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 10:39PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 12% | +8% | -2% |
| No | 80% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 88% | -8% | +2% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 10:48PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 10:48PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43% | 34% | +9% | +1% |
| No | 57% | 66% | -9% | -1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 11:00PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 11:00PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |