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DippySkippy

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Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 5%
No 97% 95%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 5%
No 95% Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 95%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Oct 29, 2024 0%
No 99% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Oct 29, 2024 100%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:16PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 13% 11%
No 87% 89%
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