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DippySkippy

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Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 23, 2024 11:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 2% 2%
Latvia 2% 1%
Lithuania 2% 1%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 04, 2024 04:03PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 2%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 3%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 14, 2024 04:51PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025 Oct 14, 2024 0%
No 99% Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025 Oct 14, 2024 100%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 14, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 2%
No 97% 99%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 14, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 14, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025 Oct 14, 2024 1%
No 99% Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025 Oct 14, 2024 99%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 14, 2024 04:52PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025 Oct 14, 2024 0%
No 100% Sep 14, 2024 to Mar 14, 2025 Oct 14, 2024 100%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 09:53PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 09:54PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 37% 25%
No 63% 75%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 24, 2024 04:24PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 22%
No 96% 78%
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