Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
70
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 22 | 340 | 70 | 1551 |
| Comments | 0 | 13 | 68 | 51 | 633 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 20 | 46 | 26 | 130 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 99 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Apr 11, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Apr 11, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Apr 11, 2025 to Oct 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Mar 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
86%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Don’t really understand why crowd so much lower than base rates, especially given documented health/aging issues.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
(-10%)
Yes
73%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming into line with similiar questions.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Underestimating Russian peace willingness and American influence for a quick deal.
Files