99th
Accuracy Rank

DippySkippy

About:

Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

Show more
View All Badges »
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 3% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 6% 4%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 2% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 1% 1%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 9% 1% 1%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 6% 20%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 67% 72%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 23% 7%
More than or equal to 40% 3% 0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 19, 2024 09:27PM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 33%
No 75% 67%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 08:14PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 2% 2%
Latvia 2% 1%
Lithuania 2% 2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:15PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 14% 7%
Armenia 3% 2%
Georgia 3% 4%
Kazakhstan 3% 2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:16PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 42% 36%
No 58% 64%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:16PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 7% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 22%
No 93% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 78%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:17PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 13% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 5% 6%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:18PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 2% 3%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 2% 2%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel