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DippySkippy

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Interests: Systems change through philanthropy, forecasting, golf, and Arsenal FC.

I also forecast on Good Judgement Open: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/89038

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 Dec 29, 2024 0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 29, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 98% 97%
No 2% 3%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 18, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 3% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 6% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 2% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 1% 1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 25, 2024 08:14PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 2% 2%
Latvia 2% 1%
Lithuania 2% 2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:15PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 14% 7%
Armenia 3% 2%
Georgia 3% 4%
Kazakhstan 3% 2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:16PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 42% 36%
No 58% 64%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:16PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 7% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 22%
No 93% Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 78%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:17PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 13% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 5% 6%
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