Forecasted Questions
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 8% | -5% | +2% |
| No | 97% | Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025 | Dec 12, 2024 | 92% | +5% | -2% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:10PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Sep 12, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 | Oct 12, 2024 | 87% | -62% | +63% |
| No | 75% | Sep 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2025 | Oct 12, 2024 | 13% | +62% | -63% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2024 06:49AM UTC
(10 days ago)
Sep 21, 2024 06:49AM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Sep 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2025 | Oct 21, 2024 | 88% | -68% | +48% |
| No | 80% | Sep 21, 2024 to Sep 21, 2025 | Oct 21, 2024 | 12% | +68% | -48% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 21% | -19% | -6% |
| No | 98% | 79% | +19% | +6% |