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EQ

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Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

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Active Forecaster

Power Forecaster - Sep 2024

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Forecasted Questions

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:37AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	6%	5%	+2%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	10%	+6%	-5%
No	84%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	90%	-6%	+5%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	12%	11%	+1%	+0%
Kenya	7%	9%	-2%	+0%
Ethiopia	36%	35%	+1%	+0%
Nigeria	6%	5%	+1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2026	Feb 19, 2025	12%	-10%	+1%
No	98%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2026	Feb 19, 2025	88%	+10%	-1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	5%	+1%	-2%
No	94%	95%	-1%	+2%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	42%	38%	+4%	+1%
No	58%	62%	-4%	-1%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	9%	-2%	-1%
No	93%	91%	+2%	+1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 06:38AM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	42%	34%	+8%	+2%
No	58%	66%	-8%	-2%