GuilhermeRenno

The current Argentinian government prioritizes public finances, it was probably their main campaign promise, therefore, entering into default would be politically deadly and it would be avoided at all costs. In addition, Argentina is making progress in organizing its public finances, having recently lowered its investment risk grades by specialized ranking agencies. 

The Bolivian situation, however, is more challenging. In January 2025, the Fitch agency downgraded the country's investment risk from CCC (current Argentinian grade) to CCC-. In addition, Bolivia is facing intense political instability caused by former allies Arce and Morales's arm wrestling. The country is also facing major difficulties with the shrinking of natural gas exportations, the lack of dollar reserves, and low economic growth. 

Finally,  Ecuador probably faces the most concerning situation: its economy is in recession (-1.5% in 2024); it faces a major energy crisis caused by droughts (most of it depends on water sources); its politics is quite unstable, especially because it has declared war against the drug cartels. 

First, it is important to identify the current Egyptian situation of each one of the criteria regarding December 2024: 

EGX 30: -2,1% 

Inflation: +24%

External debts: not found 

Secondly, the causes of the crisis must be addressed. Among other reasons, the economic turmoil is caused by a permanent deficit in the trade balance, which causes a lack of international exchanges, which leads to international funding, and finally, to the increase of public debt and inflation. 

The international trade "zeitgeist", however, is not favorable to Egypt. Under the new presidency of Donald J. Trump, the United States has been taking measures that, at least in the short run, will undermine global international trade as protectionism becomes fashionable again. Importation fares are very detrimental to the betterment of the Egyptian trade balance. The North American assistance to Egypt, however, was not included in the broad cut from January 2025.

With that being said, I believe that the most likely criterion to be resolved until January 2026 is the inflation rate above 50%. This might happen because of the bad horizon for the international trade deficit and the lack of a "face the crisis mode" by the Egyptian government as it is happening in Argentina now, for example.

From October 1st to December 31st, 2024, there have already been 29 cases, which indicates an average of approximately 10 cases/month. If this number remains, there will be 120 cases until September 30, 2025. 

Since the German elections will take place in February 2025, the number of disinformation cases will tend to increase in the following month. After that, it is reasonable to think that the average number will drop to 10 or a little below from March on. 

In addition, the rise of new AI tools, Elon Musk's support for the AfD, and the brink of a Russian victory in Ukraine giving the country more headspace to interfere in foreign domestic politics, indicate a tendency toward more, not less, foreign interference. 

Therefore, I believe the number of identified cases will be higher than 90 for the indicated period. 

I believe it is more likely than not (51%) that Nvidia will become the most valuable market capitalization company by 31 May 2025 for the following reasons: 

It already reached the first place in October 2024, so it can be done again. 

The AI bubble concerns are legit, however, it is improbable that it will wither in 7 months. The investments are high, but not close to the previous 7 months of the dot com bubble before bursting. 

Nvidia's growth is surely pushed by the AI hype, however, it builds tech for other growing markets, such as gaming and IoT. Therefore, even if AI proves to be a bubble, it will remain quite relevant and may be enough to guarantee its place as the most valuable company by then, depending on how much it grows until then.