GuilhermeRenno

I believe the chances are relevant because on September/24 China made relevant progress, manufacturing a krypton fluoride (KrF) scanner capable of producing integrated circuits (ICs) with 130 nanometer (nm) design rules. The other is an argon fluoride (ArF) scanner capable of producing chips at 65nm.

As an Asia Times report states: Chinese semiconductor lithography systems can apparently now compete with Canon, Nikon, and ASML’s older machines. - China’s lithography gains a glass half full, not half empty. 

Even though it is still far from the question's specification resolution, I believe China is the best-positioned player to develop this technology fast. 

First, it has a huge economic urgency for it, which brings lots of investments; second, China has become the world's second-largest economy by copying other products and then surpassing them; thirdly, it is very well positioned at the AI development scenario, which may be used to accelerate its progress by a lot. 

I believe it is more likely that China will not build another military base in Africa. This point of view is defended because of the strong pressure that the USA applies on African countries to avoid it. The American government is especially concerned because if China established a base in Equatorial Guinea, for example, it could be a vulnerability for the East Coast, through the Atlantic Ocean, 

Nevertheless, many African countries have adopted pragmatic ethos, negotiating and winning from both parties. Djibouti is the perfect example since it hosts both, Chinese (Naval) and American (Camp Lemonnier) military bases.

That being said, it is important to notice that Djibouti holds the status of a “comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation" with China. This situation is shared with 11 other African countries. This is relevant because for China this is the 3rd strongest diplomatic bond and enough to establish military bases. More than that, China only has this level of relationship with 18 countries in the world, which means that 66% of them are African countries. 

The election results came out today (07/29), indicating a 51% victory for Maduro. Crowds rallied and protests erupted across Venezuela, with the opposition alleging fraud and evidence of irregularities starting to pile up.

The regime's isolation has never been stronger, with only a handful of authoritarian countries recognizing Maduro’s victory. Conversely, the opposition has never been so organized and supported internationally. Brazil's change in attitude is particularly emblematic. Amnesty for Maduro and his inner circle is a common ground for both the opposition and the U.S., which holds drug trafficking and other accusations against him.

This scenario may create the perfect storm to nudge Maduro into relinquishing power while addressing the accusations. A very similar situation occurred in 1958 when a fraudulent election led to the ousting of Marcos Pérez Jiménez from a long dictatorship. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future of Venezuela and its people.

Compared to the 50 years of the military regime that ruled Myanmar since its independence in 1938, the deposed democratic regime was simply a short 10 years' experience.

Even though the national elections of 2020 revealed a crushing public preference for the democratic candidates over the military-related ones (80% x 20%), the military is still used to be in power, and it is a hard problem to solve. 

Since the allegation of fraudulent elections by the Junta is a scapegoat, the real motivation for the Coup d'État remains unclear, which indicates that the goal may simply be a return to power for as long as possible. 

The census postoning explanation given by the Junta is both: a new scapegoat to gain time and another way to map out the opposition. The population seems to be uncooperative to the censors, so it doesn't look like this could be solved fast, especially considering the reasonably large size of the country, its expressive population, and poor infrastructure. 

Finally, the armed opposition seems to be gaining momentum against the Junta forces at the same time that China and Russia, the most expected allies of the current government, aren't acting so cooperatively. 

This draws a scenario in which the opposition may try a decisive solution, meaning bringing down the Junta for good, which, by no means, would be simple or fast. 

Considering the scenario above, I believe it is implausible that Myanmar holds national elections before 1 July 2025 (3%).