0.755768
Relative Brier Score
68
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1
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Active Forecaster
Reasons why it will be hard for China to invade Taiwan:
A Treacherous Crossings - China would need to shift military assets to its eastern coast and undertake other visible preparations for an invasion, which Taiwan and the United States would likely be able to detect. Some questions remains about whether China has the naval vessels it would need to invade Taiwan successfully. China’s amphibious fleet is relatively small, and although Beijing will likely turn to civilian ships to sustain and supplement an invading force, those take longer to unload and would be more vulnerable to Taiwanese missiles.
Few Places to Land - The D-Day operation in World War II was the largest amphibious invasion in military history, involving seven thousand ships and almost two hundred thousand troops who crossed the nearly one-hundred-mile English Channel. Over a period of three-plus weeks, 850,000 troops landed on the beaches of Normandy to liberate France. A Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan would likely have to dwarf D-Day in scale. Due to the shallow water, China would have to anchor ships far from Taiwan’s coast and move equipment to the shores slowly, making the ships vulnerable to Taiwanese missiles and artillery. Taiwan has also invested in defenses, from mines to anti-landing spikes, and mobile missile launchers.
Mountainous and Unforgiving Terrain- Taiwan has mountain peaks reaching over twelve thousand feet. Taiwanese troops could hide in those mountains and wage a guerrilla warfare campaign. Traversing those mountains to move inland would be challenging, rendering Taiwan’s east coast far less useful and forcing invaders to focus on attacking the island’s west coast. In addition, although Taiwan has major ports located in the south, moving to the north is also hard because there are few major roadways and many river crossings. As a result, a Chinese invasion would likely have to focus squarely on the ports and beaches located near Taipei.
For now I don't think so the recent attempt was in Congo and it failed miserably and the culprits involved were arrested