Confirmed previous forecast
0.755768
Relative Brier Score
68
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 100 | 74 | 355 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 30 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 37 | 22 | 68 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
(0%)
Kuwait
46%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
50%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 24, 2024 05:57AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
88%
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
For now I don't think so the recent attempt was in Congo and it failed miserably and the culprits involved were arrested
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
30%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
North Korea has been actively working on nuclear facility construction. At the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, satellite images indicate activity at both uranium enrichment facilities and reactors. New construction materials and equipment were noted, possibly for enhancing uranium production, while the thermal plants underwent upgrades in preparation for potential reprocessing operations. Additionally, at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, the expansion work around Tunnel No. 4 suggests a possible increase in North Korea’s nuclear test readiness, although it remains unclear if this is part of a strategic maneuver or preparation for future tests.
These developments point toward North Korea's continued commitment to advancing its nuclear capabilities, likely with an eye on signaling power or readiness for negotiations with the international community
Korea Joongang Daily
Beyond parallel
You might find the news at https://www.38north.org/ to be more helpful regarding readiness to conduct tests at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site.