Confirmed previous forecast
1.184066
Relative Brier Score
89
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 15 | 90 | 89 | 370 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 30 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 15 | 23 | 23 | 69 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
73%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
27%
(0%)
No
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
(0%)
Kuwait
46%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
50%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
88%
(0%)
No
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
30%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 11, 2024 to Nov 11, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 11, 2024 to Nov 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
69%
(0%)
Yes
31%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Angola - as China's oil purchases from Angola have declined in favor of suppliers like Russia and the Middle East, Angola’s debt repayments have become strained however to manage the burden, Angola secured an agreement with China’s Development Bank to release monthly installments from an escrow account to cover repayments without restructuring terms. This approach is intended to prevent Angola from defaulting, though the cost of servicing debt will remain high in the near term.
Kenya - With the backing of IMF and World Bank Kenya has been able to manage it's dept
Ethiopia - Ethiopia’s debt situation remains challenging. The Ethiopian government has sought relief through the G20’s Common Framework for Debt Treatments, an initiative intended to provide support for countries at risk of default. However, the process has been slow and complex, with challenges in coordinating agreements among creditors. China, one of Ethiopia's largest creditors, granted a temporary debt suspension, while Paris Club creditors have recently agreed to suspend further payments for 2024. Despite this, Ethiopia defaulted on a bond payment in late 2023, underlining the severity of its financial strain
BROOKINGS
.
In response, Ethiopia has implemented various economic reforms, including a transition to a floating currency exchange rate and structural changes to improve tax collection and governance. The IMF recently approved a $3.4 billion loan to help stabilize the economy and support these reforms, but devaluation of the Ethiopian birr following this policy shift has further increased the cost of repaying dollar-denominated debt
AFRODAD
BROOKINGS
.
To address its fiscal challenges, Ethiopia is pushing for more efficient international debt restructuring mechanisms and is also looking to institutions like the BRICS New Development Bank for alternative financing options to support infrastructure and growth without accumulating unsustainable debt. The situation emphasizes the need for both internal reforms and improvements in the global debt relief frameworks to support sustainable development in countries like Ethiopia.
Nigeria - Nigeria has focused on raising funds domestically by prioritizing naira-denominated debt, which is less vulnerable to currency fluctuations compared to foreign debt. However, managing this balance remains difficult amidst economic pressures, and there are ongoing calls for broader economic reforms and diversification of revenue sources to achieve fiscal stability