257th

Accuracy Rank

Kel_vin

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Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	10	11	88	88	459
Comments	0	1	12	12	42
Questions Forecasted	10	11	24	24	81
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	1	1	1	17
Definitions

New Prediction

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Kel_vin made their 2nd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

8% (0%)

Yes

92% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:01PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Kel_vin made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

87% (0%)

Yes

13% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:01PM UTC

New Prediction

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Kel_vin made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

74% (0%)

Yes

26% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:01PM UTC

New Prediction

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Kel_vin made their 4th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

20% (0%)

Yes

80% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:01PM UTC

New Prediction

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Kel_vin made their 6th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

0% (0%)

Less than 30 days

0% (0%)

30 days

0% (0%)

31-60 days

35% (0%)

61-90 days

65% (0%)

91 days or more

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:00PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Kel_vin made their 7th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

62% (0%)

Yes

38% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:00PM UTC

New Prediction

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Kel_vin made their 8th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

17% (0%)

Yes

Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2027

83% (0%)

No

Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2027

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:00PM UTC

New Prediction

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Kel_vin made their 9th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

73% (0%)

Yes

Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026

27% (0%)

No

Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:00PM UTC

New Prediction

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Kel_vin made their 9th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

20% (0%)

Yes

Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026

80% (0%)

No

Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:00PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Kel_vin made their 11th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

11% (0%)

Estonia

13% (0%)

Latvia

14% (0%)

Lithuania

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Dec 17, 2025 03:00PM UTC