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148th
Accuracy Rank

Kel_vin

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0.755768

Relative Brier Score

68

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 7 7 124 72 353
Comments 0 0 2 1 30
Questions Forecasted 7 7 39 21 67
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 4 4 15
 Definitions
New Prediction
Kel_vin
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
88%
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025

For now I don't think so the recent attempt was in Congo and it failed miserably and the culprits involved were arrested 

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New Prediction
Kel_vin
made their 9th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
30% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Kel_vin
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Kel_vin
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Kel_vin
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Kel_vin
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
69% (0%)
Yes
31% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Kel_vin
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2024 06:40AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025
80%
No
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025

Reasons why it will be hard for China to invade Taiwan:

A Treacherous Crossings - China would need to shift military assets to its eastern coast and undertake other visible preparations for an invasion, which Taiwan and the United States would likely be able to detect. Some questions remains about whether China has the naval vessels it would need to invade Taiwan successfully. China’s amphibious fleet is relatively small, and although Beijing will likely turn to civilian ships to sustain and supplement an invading force, those take longer to unload and would be more vulnerable to Taiwanese missiles.

Few Places to Land - The D-Day operation in World War II was the largest amphibious invasion in military history, involving seven thousand ships and almost two hundred thousand troops who crossed the nearly one-hundred-mile English Channel. Over a period of three-plus weeks, 850,000 troops landed on the beaches of Normandy to liberate France. A Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan would likely have to dwarf D-Day in scale. Due to the shallow water, China would have to anchor ships far from Taiwan’s coast and move equipment to the shores slowly, making the ships vulnerable to Taiwanese missiles and artillery. Taiwan has also invested in defenses, from mines to anti-landing spikes, and mobile missile launchers.

Mountainous and Unforgiving Terrain- Taiwan has mountain peaks reaching over twelve thousand feet. Taiwanese troops could hide in those mountains and wage a guerrilla warfare campaign. Traversing those mountains to move inland would be challenging, rendering Taiwan’s east coast far less useful and forcing invaders to focus on attacking the island’s west coast. In addition, although Taiwan has major ports located in the south, moving to the north is also hard because there are few major roadways and many river crossings. As a result, a Chinese invasion would likely have to focus squarely on the ports and beaches located near Taipei.


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New Prediction
Kel_vin
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
11% (0%)
Estonia
13% (0%)
Latvia
14% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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