Very unlikely in the current situation...no conflicts right now if they can be avoided
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 68 | 3 | 269 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 89 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 57 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(-19%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(-9%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Venezuela has leaders that tend to react suddenly with violence
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
20%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
10%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 6, 2025 07:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 6, 2024 to Jun 6, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Right now North Korea doesn´t want to look as agressive as it could look if these kind of tests are made
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong if there would be an incident where Power needed to be shown