107th
Accuracy Rank

Laura2021

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2022 Season Stats

1.647148

Relative Brier Score

87

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 11 82 67 255
Comments 0 0 1 1 87
Questions Forecasted 0 11 18 16 55
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 1
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Laura2021 made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
98% (0%)
Yes
2% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Laura2021 made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
20% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
10% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Laura2021 made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
6% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Reducing my forecast taking into consideration what happens right now in the area

Files
New Prediction
It is a complete No taking into account recent news and the conflict in the zone
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Laura2021 made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Laura2021 made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Laura2021 made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Laura2021 made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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