So far it seems no likely that Venezuela will return to its claims. All will depend on how political environment is in the country
1.157649
Relative Brier Score
56
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 75 | 56 | 244 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 55 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
20%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
10%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-25%)
Yes
60%
(+25%)
No
Even if i still believe is possible, evaluating last news in the zone, i am reducing the probabilty of a Yes for this question
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
Yes
95%
(+3%)
No
Reducing probabilty considering Iran is ok so far in the way the deal works
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Not very likely for Maduro to leave power in this moment. For that reason, my change in the forecast